On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court struck down the core of the Trump administration’s tariff program.
President Trump’s January 30, 2026, announcement nominating Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed) marks a meaningful development for monetary policy and the broader economic landscape. Warsh, who served on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Board during the global financial crisis, has historically been viewed as an inflation hawk and one of the strongest internal critics of quantitative easing.1 More recently, he has aligned with arguments for faster rate cuts, asserting that productivity gains could support growth without triggering inflation.2
As we look forward to a new year, it’s worth reflecting on the rather remarkable one we’ve just experienced. The global stock market (as measured by the MSCI All Country World Index) is on track to deliver double-digit returns. The global bond market (as measured by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index) is set to round out the year with a total return in the high single digits. All this despite tariff and inflation concerns, a government shutdown, AI bubble talk, and geopolitical upheaval.
With Thanksgiving already upon us and a new year just around the corner, it’s the perfect time to pause and appreciate what we have. This is particularly important for investors, since it’s so much easier to focus on what could go wrong rather than what has gone right. With markets in positive territory for the year to date, it’s helpful to reflect and to maintain perspective as new challenges and opportunities emerge.
The late 90’s will be remembered for many things: low rise jeans, Y2K fears, and the inexplicable resurgence of swing music. For stock market investors, the era recalls the meteoric rise and subsequent popping of the dot-com bubble.
With artificial intelligence dominating financial headlines, the stock market reaching new highs, and kids raiding thrift stores for 90’s fashion, investors may be wondering if history is repeating itself. It’s a fair question, especially given the high valuations and the enormous sums being invested in AI infrastructure.
The Wall Street Journal recently published an article about “a new Wall Street trade powering gold and hitting currencies” and it’s been the talk of the town. “Debasement trade” may be a new term for many, but it refers to the purported reasons behind the recent astronomical rise in gold, up over 60% year to date, to a current price around $4,300.
Market Shifts and Timeless Strategies
Twice a year, the S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes the SPIVA Scorecard (S&P Indices Versus Active), which compares the performance of actively managed mutual funds to their benchmark indices across various regions and asset classes. Their most recent scorecard shows that a majority of actively managed domestic equity funds underperformed their benchmarks in 2024.
Investment Commentary: Q4 2025 A Year In Review
Can you believe 2025 is behind us?