Co-Chief Investment Officer, Wealth Manager & Principal
There are a lot of headlines about interest rates rising and many will say something along the lines of “Highest rates since 2020!” or “Rates Jump to Highest Levels; Mortgage Rates Climbing!” Couple those headlines with the fact that the 10-year bond yield just moved up to 2%, a somewhat psychological level. There are fears that rates will rise even further and so fast that the economy will slow dramatically at time when it still is somewhat on edge. Adding those to the headline inflation numbers and there is a fair amount of angst.
So, what do you do in times like this? Remember to grab a telescope, instead of a microscope.
A microscope might show this picture: We’ve circled approximate times in the last 5 years when the 10 year treasury yield was at 2% and then underlined the lows of interest rates over the last year. Bottomline is that rates couldn’t go any lower and it looks like rates have climbed to high levels.
Source: Yahoo Finance
If we extend out the time period to 20 years, the picture is a bit different and you can see just how low rates have been for years.
Source: FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
We don’t know how much rates will rise and the news can feel unnerving at times. What we can say is that rates are still historically low and there is a lot of distance between 2%-3% now and where rates were 10, 15 20 years ago. We also know the importance of focusing on 4 key areas: shorter duration, diversification, solid income, high credit quality. In times like these, when the headlines are designed to create anxiety, we will continue to go back to these fundamentals.
Modera Wealth Management, LLC (“Modera”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply any level of skill or training. Modera may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements. For information pertaining to Modera’s registration status, its fees and services please contact Modera or refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure Web site (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov) for a copy of our Disclosure Brochure which appears as Part 2A of Form ADV. Please read the Disclosure Brochure carefully before you invest or send money.
This article is limited to the dissemination of general information about Modera’s investment advisory and financial planning services that is not suitable for everyone. Nothing herein should be interpreted or construed as investment advice nor as legal, tax or accounting advice nor as personalized financial planning, tax planning or wealth management advice. For legal, tax and accounting-related matters, we recommend you seek the advice of a qualified attorney or accountant. This article is not a substitute for personalized investment or financial planning from Modera. There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed herein will come to pass, and the information herein should not be considered a solicitation to engage in a particular investment or financial planning strategy. The statements and opinions expressed in this article are subject to change without notice based on changes in the law and other conditions.
Investing in the markets involves gains and losses and may not be suitable for all investors. Information herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or to engage in a particular investment or financial planning strategy. Individual client asset allocations and investment strategies differ based on varying degrees of diversification and other factors. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or guarantee against a loss.
Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc. (CFP Board) owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER®, and CFP® (with plaque design) in the United States, which it authorizes use of by individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.
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Let’s Talk Bonds: Use a Telescope, not a Microscope
George Padula
Co-Chief Investment Officer, Wealth Manager & Principal
There are a lot of headlines about interest rates rising and many will say something along the lines of “Highest rates since 2020!” or “Rates Jump to Highest Levels; Mortgage Rates Climbing!” Couple those headlines with the fact that the 10-year bond yield just moved up to 2%, a somewhat psychological level. There are fears that rates will rise even further and so fast that the economy will slow dramatically at time when it still is somewhat on edge. Adding those to the headline inflation numbers and there is a fair amount of angst.
So, what do you do in times like this? Remember to grab a telescope, instead of a microscope.
A microscope might show this picture: We’ve circled approximate times in the last 5 years when the 10 year treasury yield was at 2% and then underlined the lows of interest rates over the last year. Bottomline is that rates couldn’t go any lower and it looks like rates have climbed to high levels.
Source: Yahoo Finance
If we extend out the time period to 20 years, the picture is a bit different and you can see just how low rates have been for years.
Source: FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
We don’t know how much rates will rise and the news can feel unnerving at times. What we can say is that rates are still historically low and there is a lot of distance between 2%-3% now and where rates were 10, 15 20 years ago. We also know the importance of focusing on 4 key areas: shorter duration, diversification, solid income, high credit quality. In times like these, when the headlines are designed to create anxiety, we will continue to go back to these fundamentals.
Modera Wealth Management, LLC (“Modera”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply any level of skill or training. Modera may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements. For information pertaining to Modera’s registration status, its fees and services please contact Modera or refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure Web site (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov) for a copy of our Disclosure Brochure which appears as Part 2A of Form ADV. Please read the Disclosure Brochure carefully before you invest or send money.
This article is limited to the dissemination of general information about Modera’s investment advisory and financial planning services that is not suitable for everyone. Nothing herein should be interpreted or construed as investment advice nor as legal, tax or accounting advice nor as personalized financial planning, tax planning or wealth management advice. For legal, tax and accounting-related matters, we recommend you seek the advice of a qualified attorney or accountant. This article is not a substitute for personalized investment or financial planning from Modera. There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed herein will come to pass, and the information herein should not be considered a solicitation to engage in a particular investment or financial planning strategy. The statements and opinions expressed in this article are subject to change without notice based on changes in the law and other conditions.
Investing in the markets involves gains and losses and may not be suitable for all investors. Information herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or to engage in a particular investment or financial planning strategy. Individual client asset allocations and investment strategies differ based on varying degrees of diversification and other factors. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or guarantee against a loss.
Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc. (CFP Board) owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER®, and CFP® (with plaque design) in the United States, which it authorizes use of by individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.
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